Scenario Development and Applications Stakeholder Workshop
- What range of climate conditions should be considered when developing a drought plan?
- What temperature and precipitation parameters are other municipalities using, and how were they chosen?
- Why are simple "high, medium, low" scenarios inadequate for some purposes?
Scenario planning is the formal process of rigorous evaluation of plausible, yet uncertain future events, and their implication for decision making. By investigating a set of diverse and informative alternative futures, scenario planning allows a decision maker to understand and identify approaches to respond to potential risks and opportunities stemming from alternative outcomes that may occur in the future. For example, a "WISHFUL" scenario depicts a future where there is no significant increase in global mean temperatures, precipitation moves back to the trends of the 1980s, and conservation of water and energy is effective, while the opposite or some other different future can be characterized in an alternative scenario.
This one-day workshop is appropriate for waer managers, community planners, environmental organizations, and researchers in water resources. The workshop will cover the main issues involved in conducting scenario planning exercises for water resources issues. Participants will be introduced to the science behind scenario planning, learn how scenarios have been used to tackle water planning issues across the state, and participate in an ongoing process for developing and refining scenarios for the Southwest.
This workshop will comprise four main components:
- Scenario Training - Open discussion regarding the scenario development framework; analyzing different development methods; e.g. Schwartz, Rocky Mountain Institute, SAHRA process, etc.
- Sharing Lessons Learned - Discuss existing scenario applications/studies for water planning in the Southwest and lessons/experience learned from these processes.
- Regional Scenario Definition Exercise - An interactive exercise involving a step-by-step walkthrough of the first phase of scenario development; scenario definition with stakeholder participation. This results in a set of regional priorities to consider in water resources planning for the Southwest.
- Investigating Tools for Working with Scenarios - Sharing/discussion of different application tools used to support scenario planning; discussion of the SAHRA scenario website as a tool to enhance scenario learning as well as suggestions and feedback regarding improvement of the site; and coordination of a statewide community of scenario developers.
The following will be workshop instructors:
- Holly Hartmann, Research Scientist, Dept. of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona. Dr. Hartmann has a background in hydrology, water resource management and water policy.
- Steven Stewart Research Scientist, Dept. of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona. Dr. Stewart has a background in natural resource economics and water policy.
- Yuqiong Liu, a postdoctoral research scientist in SAHRA with interests in water resources systems analysis, integrated hydrological/climate modeling, and land-atmosphere interactions
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 29, 2007, 8:00 AM - 5:00
PM
Location: Westin La Paloma, meeting room TBA
Cost: $70
Provided: Lunch, breaks, handouts, networking
Registration deadline: July 31; Workshop will be
canceled (and refunds issued) if minimum number of registrants is not
met by July 13
Maximum number of attendees: 40